Jeb Bush may be the Republican establishment favorite for president, but the former Florida governor will have to overcome fatigue expressed by some conservatives about potentially enshrining a political dynasty in the White House.
That was the feeling described by prospective voters ahead of Bush’s speech on Friday at a Republican conference on Mackinac Island, roughly four hours north of Detroit.
“I think the entire Bush family is a wonderful institution,” said Kent Clarke, a bankruptcy attorney from Detroit. “I like their morals … but I suspect that he doesn’t have the fire in his belly [to win the election].”
Standing to Clarke’s right on the porch of the picturesque Grand Hotel, consultant Greg Behling said: “What the press tells us is that he’s geared for the long haul. But I think the horse has run out of steam already.”
In a campaign launched in the shadow of his father, President George HW Bush, and his brother, President George W Bush, the former Florida governor has not shied away from the family name. On Friday, he sought to further establish a connection with the Bush legacy during a 20-minute speech that was delivered over dinner.
“I know how to do this because, yes, I am a Bush,” he said. “I happen to have seen two really good presidents develop relationships with other countries.”
The Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference takes place every two years on an island accessible only by ferry or charter plane. Officials say more than 2,000 attendees registered to attend this weekend, with a half-dozen presidential candidates slated to speak.
On Wednesday, during the second Republican presidential debate, Bush struck a discordant note with observers when he said his brother “kept us safe” during his time as the 43rd president. The following day, Bush proudly reiterated his remarks in a tweet, accompanied by a photo of his brother at the World Trade Center ruins.
It is that association with George W Bush that may give potential supporters pause, said Bruce Patterson, a former Michigan legislator. Patterson took pains to stress that he “thinks very highly of the Bush family”, saying each had served “for all the right reasons”.
“They’re not in it for any personal gain; they’re not going to bloviate,” Patterson said between greeting several passersby on the Grand Hotel’s winding porch.
There is a contingent of voters, however, who believe “we’ve given the Bushes too many opportunities”, he said.
“So I think that’s a strike against him. I would hope people would assess him on more than that.”
Bush was not without support on the island. Michigan attorney general Bill Schuette praised Bush’s performance at the debate.
“He demonstrated a mastery of complex issues and talked about his record as a conservative governor in the state of Florida … an important, must-win state forRepublicans,” said Schuette, who endorsed Bush in August.
Schuette, whose relationship with Bush stretches back to the era of Bush’s father, pointed to the governor’s record in Florida on education reform and “the fact he cut taxes when he was governor” each year in office.
Despite Bush’s lukewarm performances at recent debates, Schuette said his candidate “has the ability to [go] the distance”.
“Listen, I like where we are,” he said. “You’ve got to earn it every day, any race you run for … So from my standpoint, with 16 candidates, we’re where we need to be. We’re working hard.”
Still, Bush has watched his standing as putative frontrunner continue to slide. His attempts to stand out as a politically experienced candidate in a crowded field has been dwarfed by the bombastic billionaire Donald Trump, along with a strong showing from the field’s other outsiders: former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
The debate on Wednesday did not bolster his support: in a poll released on Thursday, Bush trailed the trio of political neophytes among voters in New Hampshire. According to the VoterGravity poll, Bush polled fourth, tied with Ohio governor John Kasich at 9%. Nearly 50% of the vote from more than 2,800 New Hampshire Republican primary voters was consumed by Fiorina, Carson and Trump.
Ron Michaels, a retired General Motors employee, said Bush stood out as having “a steady hand on the wheel”.
“I think senators in general are good [candidates, but] probably governors are better because they’ve had more hands-on dealing with a legislature and two parties – probably the unions,” he said. “So, probably, governors are a better shot at doing a good job as president.”
In order to break away from concerns about his family ties, Bush has to produce a “longstanding list of good ideas”, Michaels said.
But the persistent showing of the political novices in the field left Michaels wondering if Bush could overcome fervent anti-establishment sentiment on the GOP’s far-right.
“That’s a tsunami, isn’t it?” Michaels said. “They’re riding that wave.”
He paused, swirled his glass of scotch, and added: “How do you push back against that?”
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